Future of Iran-US Relations

By Natalie C. '23

The United States and Iran over the last 40 years have had a strained relationship. U.S. foreign policy towards Iran is centered around dealing with the 1979 Iranian Revolution, during which the people of Iran overthrew the U.S. backed Shah. Ever since, both countries have been at each other’s throats. The transition between administrations will not change the trend of being tough on Iran. Trump’s foreign policy towards Iran was notoriously hawkish, and at times it seemed as though both nations were on the brink of war with each other. Trump’s examples of hawkishness include: pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, assassinating General Soleimani, and declaring that Iran was hosting terrorists. While Biden certainly cannot resurrect Soleimani or undo all the damage caused by Trump, he can make great strides towards repairing relations with Iran. 

Biden has planned on re-entering the Iran Nuclear Deal, otherwise known as the JCPOA, with the condition that Iran will return to fulfilling its obligations. The obligations being, to not enrich and develop their nuclear capacities past a certain point, that point being the ability to construct a nuclear weapon. In return the U.S. would lower sanctions in exchange. 

Promptly after exiting the JCPOA, Trump ramped up sanctions in a “maximum pressure” effort. Iran responded by loosening its adherence to the restrictions on uranium enrichment and stockpiling. However, many European participants in the deal attempted to salvage whatever they could with little success. Biden has made it clear that he wants to limit Iran’s nuclear and military potential. Biden has named multiple people who were instrumental in constructing the JCPOA to important positions in his administration. However, according to Secretary of State Tony Blinken, there are still many breakthroughs that need to be made to repair relations. In an interview on February 1st, 2021, according to the New York Times, Blinken declared that Iran was well on its way to developing enough “fissile material for a nuclear bomb.” Whether this accurately portrays reality has been debated among the media. 

Conversely, many of Iran’s top officials are open to rejoining the JCPOA or a similar deal, on the condition that the U.S. fulfils its obligation to drop sanctions and does not impose any new preconditions on Iran. Iranian officials argue that since the U.S. initiated the agreement, it is its responsibility to rejoin the accords first. This view was confirmed by Iran’s UN ambassador Majid Takht-Ravanchi who stated, “the window is closing… If the new administration does not meet its obligations and remove sanctions in short order, it will destroy the possibility for engagement within the nuclear agreement.” Iran sees the opportunity for normalized relations with the U.S to be slowly disappearing. If the US does not rejoin the deal first and ease sanctions, then Iran will not comply with nuclear enrichment standards outlined in the deal. Such threats were backed up when Iran restricted visits from several international nuclear inspectors, in blatant disregard of the deal. 

The U.S. and Iran relations are rooted in the 1979 revolution when the Iranian people overthrew the U.S. backed Shah. Shah had previously overthrown the country’s democratically elected leader Mohammad Mosaddedgh. The U.S. has never  forgiven Iran for overthrowing the Shah. This resentment manifests itself in the fact that both the Democratic and Republican parties have championed a “tough on Iran” platform, often encouraging crippling sanctions on Iran, which have fallen most heavily on the civilian population. The Iran Nuclear Deal promised that many of the brutal sanctions placed on the country by past presidents would be lifted. While it certainly didn’t lift all sanctions, it did allow Iran to get along well enough before Trump exited the deal and reinstated the crippling sanctions. Iran, contrary to popular belief of it being a belligerent regime, has shown incredible support for re-entering the deal, only if the U.S. does its part as well.