The Baltimore Ravens began the season with similarly mediocre expectations since the season of Lamar Jackson’s MVP run in 2019. While competing in one of the most competitive divisions in the league, the AFC North, Baltimore’s playoff run would prove more difficult. The team has spent the last four years building a more experienced roster of receiving power, and defensive leaders all led by their quarterback, Lamar Jackson, who earned a $260 million contract over the offseason. Adding veteran names like Odell Beckham Jr. and Roquon Smith supported Jackson and the team to lead them to greater success in the 2023 season. The Ravens ended the regular season with 13 wins and 4 losses at first place in their division as well as their conference, providing a first-round bye in the Wild Card round of the NFL Playoffs. The Ravens secured the title of the top team in the league with convincing leads over the San Francisco 49ers and the Miami Dolphins, two teams also competing for top spots and a Super Bowl run. Their streak of wins caused questions to arise of the Ravens’ ability to continue their success and the possibility of their playoff hopes to thrive well through February.

However, the common logic that a team is due for a loss or a mistake, represented by Ravens fans and critics, is false. Known as the law of averages, it is the belief that the probability of a win or loss changes purely because of a streak. The study of statistics proves that this law is inaccurate, as the probability of a win or a loss remains the same on every chance, similar to a coin flip where the chance of landing on heads is always 50%. When the law of probability is applied to a team, their record becomes the probability of winning their next game. Because the Ravens’ final record stood at 13-4 the probability of the Ravens winning the upcoming playoff game against the Houston Texans was 76.5%. This percentage discounts the human element of any sport that factors in the health of the players, experience in the postseason, conditions and location, and any other outside factors such as the team’s individual belief in their ability to succeed. And while the team’s record is a beneficial indicator for success, sports and professional football are mental games that demand the focus of each team to earn the championship title.

The Baltimore Ravens had a strong chance of achieving those Super Bowl dreams. They were recognized as a team with a powerful defense and a flashy offense capable of defeating the other top-seed on the NFC side, the 49ers. The Ravens last faced the 49ers on Christmas day in a convincing victory of 33-19, proving many members of the media wrong who did not believe in the offense’s ability to withstand the defensive unit San Francisco has built around the defensive end, Nick Bosa and their star-studded offense with two MVP candidates, quarterback, Brock Purdy and running back, Christian McCaffery. After Baltimore’s victory in San Francisco, Purdy and McCaffery’s MVP hopes were deflated. Star QB, Brock Purdy threw four interceptions, two of which landed in the hands of second-year safety, Kyle Hamilton. Despite their shortcomings against the Ravens, the 49ers locked in their top spot in the NFC, securing a first-round bye, just like the Ravens.

The week following, the Ravens were set to face another top competitor in the NFL, the Miami Dolphins. Riding off a 70-20 victory in week 3, the Dolphins’ offense had proved itself as powerful. The Ravens defensive preparedness was questioned after their domination of the 49ers. Media wondered if the Ravens could be due for a loss in their Week 17 matchup with the Dolphins. But as their record stood at 12-3, their probability of winning the game was 80%. And the Ravens proved their preparedness with a 56-19 victory on New Year’s Eve. The Dolphins’ offense was shut off by the Ravens’ defense, who made way for the offense led by 5 touchdowns from Lamar Jackson. This defiant victory, secured Jackson’s bid for season MVP in many eyes. The following week, Head Coach John Harbaugh chose to rest many starting players in preparation for the playoffs after they clinched the first-round bye. In a competitive loss, the Ravens fell to their divisional rivals, the Pittsburgh Steelers in the final week of regular season competition. The probability of a victory over the Steelers was 81.25%, but this chance did not account for the players on the field. 

The Ravens headed into the NFL playoffs with the benefit of odds for a Super Bowl victory. For the first time in a long time, the Ravens were favored to win the championship and are led by a quarterback who is favored to receive his second league MVP. But, the playoffs are a clean slate, every team starts 0-0, and anything could happen on a given Sunday, or Saturday afternoon.

The Ravens met the Houston Texans on Saturday, January 20th in M&T Bank Stadium where the Baltimore fans took on the role of 12th man, causing 6 pre-snap penalties. And in a 34-10 victory, the Baltimore Ravens proved their rank as #1 seed in the league. After a slow first half ending in a tied score at 10, Jackson, the MVP frontrunner, gave a rousing halftime speech to inspire the team to “do their job” in the second half. This individualistic inspiration rallied the team to an AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, January 28th, again in M&T Bank. The Chiefs won their first road playoff game in the Mahomes era last week in Buffalo with 2 receiving touchdowns from Travis Kelce. With 16 TD connections for Mahomes and Kelce in the postseason, they beat out Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for the top seed in this stat. Coming into the game with a combined record of 14-4, Baltimore had a 78% chance of defeating this newly formed dynasty, led by two-time Super Bowl champion, Patrick Mahomes. However, their favorability fell short on a dreary Sunday in Baltimore when Kansas City took home another AFC Championship title in a 17-10 defensive battle. While the Baltimore defense limited the Chiefs to zero points in the second half, Kansas City was more successful, allowing only 81 rushing yards, the fewest for the Ravens since Week 1 of the 2022 season. And as the culmination of another Ravens’ season is grieved by the city, fans look forward to the bright future of a young roster. The countdown to the 2024 season has begun and as always, the common tune “there’s always next year” rings true.